Mayweather-Pacquiao: Can Pacquiao win?

 
    May 2, 2015, it’s finally happening. It’s been what 5? 6 years? It’s the fight everyone has been waiting for, and now it’s almost unbelievable that it’s finally happening. So, what is going to happen? 
    Most boxing analysts say Mayweather is going to come out on top and it’s hard to disagree. Mayweather has been untouchable, well, mostly untouchable. The problem is that in order for Pacquiao to win, he is going to have to fight a perfect fight, whereas Mayweather simply has to show up and be Mayweather. So, let’s get into it. 
    First, we have to talk about Pacquiao’s left hand. The question is, how effective will Pacquiao’s signature lunging left hand be against Mayweather's tough defense? Unless Pacquiao just so happens to be tremendously faster than Mayweather come fight night (very doubtful), Pacquiao’s lunging left hand will probably be a non-factor. 
    The 38-year-old Mayweather has shown no sign of slowing down and has demonstrated, most recently against Maidana, that he can still effortlessly float away from an attacking opponent. This is a problem for Pacquiao because his vicious jab-straight combination can be seen from a mile away, especially for a seasoned fighter like Floyd Mayweather Jr. 
    Let’s look at some clips:

Double jab into straight for days...

Jab straight...

    Pacquiao’s left hand has been most effective against opponents who have not been very mobile. Marquez, while a great counter puncher, can only retreat backward in a straight line. The once agile and quick footed De La Hoya showed up on fight night with what looked like weights attached to his ankles. Mosley too seemed to have let father time get the better of him. The point is, if you’re hoping for a big knockout shot to come from the lunging left, I believe you will be sorely disappointed. Let’s look at an example of Mayweather fighting a southpaw. 

Float like a butterfly...

    Notice as soon as Judah fires the double jab, Mayweather is gone. The only way I see Manny's lunging left hand becoming effective, is if Mayweather engages with Pacquiao full on near the ropes, which may happen, but considering how well Mayweather adjusted to Maidana’s onslaught in their second encounter, it’s doubtful he would allow himself to be put into that position. The only other way he might get caught with Pacquiao’s lunging left, is if he starts being the aggressor in the center of the right, which he likes to do when he feels he has the advantage. If Mayweather engages in this sort of fighting, a couple things would have to be established to justify the risk: Mayweather believes his speed is too much for Pacquiao; Pacquiao lacks the power to hurt Mayweather; Mayweather is just too big for Pacquiao.  

“Pacquiao has to fight a perfect fight. ”

    This isn’t to say Pacquiao won’t be able to land a left on Mayweather because he certainly will. Over the years, Pacquiao has begun to rely more so on his lead left than his signature jab-straight combinations. Let's look at what he was able to accomplish against De La Hoya.

 And Mayweather has shown us time and time again that he is vulnerable to the left hand when it's not advertised.   
 

Tap...

De La Hoya with some quick shots...

Cotto landing a series of straights...

    But the punches Pacquiao will land with the left will only be good for the judges, not for scoring any sort of knockdown. This isn't to say Pacquiao's lead left is incapable of scoring a knockdown because it certainly is. Let’s look at one more clip to that illustrates Pacquiao’s lead left. 
 

    In addition to showing that he is susceptible to the left hand, Mayweather has shown that he is also susceptible to looping right hooks and counter rights. Some clips:

So close...

    And, yes, just in case you were wondering, that was a knockdown by Zab Judah. The right landed by Mosley might have also resulted in a knockdown if Mayweather hadn’t held onto Mosley for dear life. 
    So this is where Pacquiao’s right gets interesting. Let’s look at two clips below. 

And one more for good measure...

    It doesn’t look like much, but these right hands managed to both knock Cotto down and severely turn the momentum against Marquez. Pacquiao’s ability to land short and quick punches on the inside are going to be crucial in winning against Mayweather. These short quick shots are especially dangerous because of Pacquiao’s speed and the angle from which they come, and Mayweather, when pressured, seems to have trouble dealing with shots coming from unusual angles. The first fight between Mayweather and Maidana is a prime of example of Mayweather struggling with punches coming from odd angles. Let’s look at the clip below.

Dat pressure...

    Now, we have to remember that in Mayweather v Maidana II, Mayweather successfully managed to neutralize and dominate Maidana for the entire length of the fight. Still, Maidana showed that a world class fighter like Mayweather has trouble with aggression that comes from odd angles, such as Maidana’s hammer right hooks.
    So it goes, that Pacquiao’s short right hands and left-hand leads will be his most effective punches against Mayweather. Will they be enough to win Pacquiao a decision? Definitely not. There are two other elements Pacquiao will need to bring to the fight in order to win against Mayweather: his knockout power and his tremendous footwork. 

“Pacquiao needs to land quick right hooks.”

    Pacquiao’s power has always been an interesting point of discussion. While many fighters in lower weight divisions have demonstrated great speed, it’s not often that one possesses both speed and power. Pacquiao’s ability to hurt people is arguably his greatest strength. It’s no mystery, that one you are getting hit and hit hard, you are going to hesitate to let your fists go. This works perfectly with Pacquiao’s style of fighting as his power causes many fighters to retreat, allowing Pacquiao to continue to land punches in bunches. 
    But does he still have that power? I think it’s safe to say Pacquiao still has the power to hurt fighters, but I think a better question is whether or not he will commit to his punches in the manner he used to. As discussed previously, Manny’s most devastating punch is his straight left hand, but I doubt we’ll see Manny commit to that punch often. Granted, he will throw it, but Mayweather would have successfully moved out of range by the time the punch meets its target. Come fight night, look to see Pacquiao use his jab-straight combo to close the distance more so than to inflict damage. 

“Manny will have to commit to his punches.”

    So, Pacquiao will have to hurt Mayweather with his other punches—notice I said hurt. It’s one thing to touch another fighter, but it's quite another to actually make him feel your fists. This is crucial to Manny’s success because if he can't hurt Mayweather, he won't get Mayweather to commit to any sort of exchange and Mayweather will continue to outbox Manny from the outside.   
    Manny’s short right hooks, his lead left, his often lazy jab—all have to land with authority. When Mayweather gets’s hurt (Judah, Mosley) he has shown a willingness to engage, to reassert himself as the more dominate fighter. This is a dangerous move against a fighter like Pacquiao, which brings us to another issue, Manny’s footwork. If Mayweather begins to hesitate with his hands, Manny should be able to take advantage just as long as he’s not reckless. 
    Truth be told, if Pacquiao wins, he is going to do so not by his strength or speed, but by his footwork. This is where, to me, Mayweather-Pacquiao, is so interesting. I don’t believe Mayweather has fought a fighter with as much lateral movement as Pacquiao, and it’s Pacquiao’s ability to move that makes this fight dangerous for Mayweather. 
    Mayweather has fought fast fighters; Mayweather has fought aggressive fighters; Mayweather has fought fighters that can move in and out of exchanges (albeit in straight lines); but he has never fought a fighter who is athletic as he is when it comes to footwork. Let’s look at a few clips.

    What I find most impressive about this exchange and knockdown, is Manny’s ability to turn Hatton, firing what almost appears to be a blind jab, and then proceeds to rock him with the straight left.

    Here, Pacquiao out works Cotto, turns him laterally and is able to open him up with great style.
    So it goes, if Pacquiao brings his A+ game, in regards to his footwork, Mayweather-Pacquiao is going to be an exciting fight top to bottom and, more importantly to Pacquiao fans, a fight Manny just might have a chance of winning.    
    Pacquiao’s ability to move in and out of exchanges and move laterally will open the fight up. If Pacquiao can stay energetic and never lose his feet (or get knocked out), he should be able to employ his varied and impressive arsenal of punches.
    There's something else that is interesting about Manny's footwork that I haven't seen discussed anywhere else. Manny fights most of his battles in the center of the ring, an area where Mayweather has completely dominated in every single one of his fights. It's not often that you will see Pacquiao attempt to use his physical strength to bully his opponent onto the ropes and go to work. 
    Manny likes to stay on the balls of his feet, constantly darting in and out of the range of his opponent, and it will be interesting to see how Mayweather reacts to this style of boxing. The question is: how will Manny use his footwork against Mayweather? Will Manny commit to a more physical bout as others have done before him? Will he try to muscle Mayweather onto the ropes and go to work? I certainly hope not. 
    Mayweather has shown, excluding his first fight with Maidana, that he is untouchable on the ropes. He has lured other aggressive fighters into this position only to punish them for over committing. 
    This is something Manny has to be very aware of, especially in lieu of his devasting loss to Marquez in their fourth encounter. Manny can't be lured to fight Mayweather on the ropes unless he has hurt him in some way and even then, he still must proceed with caution. Let's look at some clips of Mayweather fighting on the ropes.

Case in point...don't fight Mayweater on the ropes...

“If Manny can keep his feet, it will be an exciting fight.”

    So it goes, that Pacquiao will need everything we just discussed to win. He will need his lunging left, his left-hand lead, and his inside right hook to land with authority. He will need to work his feet for 12 rounds without tiring and Pacquiao will need to average about a hundred or more punches a round. Furthermore, Pacquiao will have to neutralize Mayweather's jab with sound defense and avoid Mayweater's counter right. Let's look at this counter right.

Manny cannot get caught with this counter...

    That’s a tall order for a fighter, even for one as great as Pacquiao. This is especially the case since Paquiao's domain is also Mayweather's domain--the center of the ring. Even if his skills are on full display on May 2nd, there are other things to consider. 
    First, the size difference. I can’t help but think about Mayweather-Marquez. I tell you I felt like I was watching a little kid pick a fight with an adult. The size difference was obvious and everyone ringside recognized it right away. Mayweather didn’t make weight at 144 lbs, coming in at 146, and on the night of the fight, Mayweather’s weight was not revealed. The weight difference was so substantial that Marquez, already an underdog, had zero chance of hurting Mayweather or imposing his will.  

“Pacquiao has a tall order ahead of him.”

    The fight between Manny and Floyd will be at the welterweight limit of 147 lbs. Manny’s last fight with Algieri was at a catchweight of 144 lbs and he looked great. Indeed, it is very likely that Mayweather will have a significant weight advantage of Pacquiao come May 2nd, and the difference alone might be enough to squash any hope of Pacquiao winning. 
    Weight isn’t the only issue. Mayweather is an inch and a half taller than Pacquiao and has a significant reach advantage of 5 inches. What does this all mean? Well, for one, Pacquiao has yet to engage in a fight with someone who is both mobile, and fights like a tall fighter. 
Let’s look at the big fights Pacquiao has won.

De La Hoya: Hunched over, no footwork
Cotto: Bigger, but fought hunched over
Marquez: Solid defense, not very mobile 
Mosley: Fought tall, but zero footwork.

    What this amounts to is the fact that Pacquiao, who will already have a hard time getting to Mayweather, is at a considerable disadvantage based on Mayweather's stature. 

So, can Manny Pacquiao win?

Yes, Pacquiao can win. Will he win? Probably not.

    My prediction? Mayweather by split decision, and that’s being hopeful. I have serious doubts that Pacquiao, even if he shows up in perfect form, will be able to out class Mayweather. There’s just too much going against him. 
    When I think about this mega fight, I think about Marquez and what he was able to accomplish against Pacquiao. Marquez is a brilliant counter puncher and an extremely intelligent fighter, and Pacquiao has struggled to put a definitive stamp on his victories over him. Mayweather is better than Marquez in almost every way imaginable. He’s faster, smarter, and a better counter puncher. He’s also bigger. 
    Pacquiao will keep the fight interesting for 3-4 rounds, but Mayweather will take control of the fight, slow things down, and hell, he just might step forward and knock Pacquiao out with a strong left hook. 

10 Types of People you will encounter while Adventure Running

Adventure running (a race containing obstacles, fire, and soon tear gas) certainly seems like a bad time waiting to happen. I mean, who in their right minds would willing toss themselves into a pool of mud, climb a fifty-foot wooden triangle built by a deranged boy scout, and then proceed to jump over a pile of burning logs?    

Truth be told, these sorts of races have been growing in popularity for the last decade and they certainly don’t show any sign of slowing. For those of you who prefer to stay indoors (like me) and suffer from social anxiety, here are the 10 kinds of people you will likely encounter at such an event, that is, if you ever decide to leave the safety of your home. 
 
1. The Loner

Although you may hear the pitter-patter of their feet as they sprint past you, these individuals are often times hard to spot. Sometimes if you scan the field of participants closely, you’ll see them attempting to blend in with the crowd, studying each and every obstacle as they devise a plan of attack with a perpetual smirk strewn across their face.  

In summary, this person is an absolute weirdo and should be avoided at all costs. You think I’m joking, but I’m really not. What kind of neurotic pays a hundred dollars to run an obstacle course by himself, racing against himself, and then quietly leaves without obtaining his free beer? The Jeffrey Dahmer type does and the Jeffrey Dahmer type does not play well with others.  

If you find yourself face to face with one of these sorts, keep your head down and remain completely still--his vision is based on movement.
 
2. The Corporate Getaway 

Every job has one: the super fit boss with a ton of energy who eats right and is equipped with teeth white enough to be on television. When everyone at your job isn’t trying to murder one another to get ahead, you will have to deal with this person, and god forbid he sees you eating fast food--for your enjoyment of the meal will be stamped out with a lengthy lecture on free radicals and how you’re going to die of cancer. Yikes.  

Then one day, in attempt to earn the respect of his boss, some out of shape intern sends a company-wide email entitled “Hey guys let’s do one of these!” with a link to some crazy mud run. The boss, who at this point is properly elated and losing his breath, shouts at his desk in agreement and responds with a “Hell yes!” whilst banging out a reply on his keyboard.  

Two months later you will see them all wearing the same awful jersey being led around by the boss in a series of warm-up stretches. Everyone is super excited to be there (Lie) and the boss just can’t wait to get started. In the end, someone is guaranteed a sprained ankle, a bruised knee, and a hurt ego—all at the expense of moving up the corporate ladder. Too bad they don’t realize the company is about to be downsized.   
 
3. Huge Group of Girls

And you thought they were only dangerous at the club—or maybe I’m being too harsh. This group doesn't necessarily pose a risk, that is, unless they all go tumbling down the mountain side together and, you know, you just so happen to be in their path. No, there's nothing really inherently dangerous about this group at all.  

They are easy enough to spot, as they will likely be running together, taking selfies, and taking great care in making sure every single one of their friends is accounted for at all times. This sort of behavior tends to create bottlenecks throughout the course so be aware if you decide to take flight and start running six minute miles for there will be a group of these chattering birds every hundred yards or so.  

To tell you the truth, it would be rather nice to be part of this group, simply because of the overwhelming support structure they form. This group is dead serious about their teamwork. I saw a hundred-pound girl supporting her friend and all of her excess as she attempted a wall climb by offering her back as a support mechanism. Needless to say, I heard her neck was stuck in that position for the remainder of the race and the doctors have declared her inoperable.  
 
4. The Sponsored

This is the truly athletic group and in a way they piss me off the most. I mean, here I am throwing away my hard earned money on ticket entries and team jerseys and these people just waltz in wearing their colorful head to toe attire completely free of charge. Hell, I hear some of these people even get paid to be a running advertisement. Son of a bitch.  

But how can I complain? I really can't complain. These are the people we all secretly aspire to be. You see, we all want to be walking-talking good looking advertisements with chiseled abs and thick booties—even if we don’t want to admit it.  

These are the groups who tend to get the most attention as they trot along the race, blowing past every obstacle and growing more attractive with every scratch and blotch of mud on their skin. Maybe I’ll get lucky and have one of them break their fall on me—guy or girl, doesn’t matter. Bring it on.  
 
5. The Child and the Sadist

 
Although these races are meant to be competitive, they’re also meant to be fun. However, a quick look at YouTube and you will quickly see that many of the obstacles are rather dangerous and you might start to wonder if anyone has ever died. Oh yes, people have died, but I can assure you that such a thing is a very rare occurrence. You are, however, more likely to contract E. coli or some other nasty virus from the mud pits. Remember people, there is a reason why public pools are pumped full of chlorine—so keep your mouths shut while traversing through. 

And despite these dangers, you will still see that parent and their only child trekking the course--one obstacle at a time. God only knows what other kinds of bizarre punishments this parent makes their child undertake when they’re not dragging them through barbed wire Vietnam crawls for everyone to see.  

I suppose it’s some sort of character building exercise. In the parent’s mind, they’re probably thinking they’re teaching their child self-reliance, courage, and endurance—all of which is perfectly fine, but what good is self-reliance when your child is dead? I suppose if your child somehow loses a few limbs along the way, self-reliance will be a very valuable skill to have, but I’d rather keep my own flesh and blood out of harm’s way. 
 
6. The Married Couple

Whether they’re newlyweds, or she’s just had a baby, or he’s having a mid-life crisis, the underlying reason for this pair is still the same: I’ve still got it and I’m going to prove it. While their efforts valiant and their intentions pure, I still can’t help but feel a little sorry for this group.  

You’ll often see some aging stud attempting to run up a hill, only to hear the call of his wife echoing through the mountain side. "Don't leave me!" she cries out, but he doesn't hear her and he never will.

In another case, you might see the wife counting aloud as her husband performs the penalty burpees for being unable to do the wall climb due to his beer belly. She’ll be there counting each and everyone to make sure he doesn’t cheat like he cheated on her (Ouch!). Don’t worry, I’m sure they’ll work it out.

I suppose everyone has something to prove, but it’s never as obvious as it is with this group. The way they look at each other as they pass each obstacle makes me want to drown myself in a pool of Red Bull. This “Power Couple”, as they like to call themselves, might be the most annoying of the group simply because they’re constantly seeking approval from everyone there. Sorry folks, no one cares that you can climb up a hill carrying a bucket of rocks all by yourself—even if you did just have a baby.  
 
7. The Free Loader 

Every race has them and life itself is full of them. Just the other day I was driving on my way to work when a couple of women on the street sprinted up to my car and let themselves in. Before I could say a word, they pointed straight ahead and screamed at the top of their lungs “Follow that car!”, so I did--but that's a story for another time.

These are the kind of people who simply show up. Many of them just happen to be local runners looking for a workout or perhaps get lucky with one of the peeps from the Sponsored group. They show up, walk past security, and simply run with the rest of the pack.  

Most of these events have very little staff so stopping this group is close to impossible which allows them to run the race without anyone even noticing. Even at the end of the race when the staff members attempt to check wristbands, they run on by, straight to the bar and then back to whatever ditch they came from.  
 
8. The Creepy Cyborg 

This is the gentleman or woman who decides to wear every piece of tech he owns for the race. He’s easy to spot as there will likely be a camera fastened to his skull, chest, or sometimes even both. There will likely be a big fat watch on his wrist as well so that he may keep track of his progress and share it with the world on Facebook as soon as he gets reception on his cell phone.

 
This person also tends to run with a group but will most definitely be bringing up the rear so he may capture everything and everyone during his run. Be careful if you happen to be in front of this person, especially during the crawling events as he will most be definitely be recording your assets as you attempt to keep the skin on your dome safe from the barbed wire. 

Don’t think you’re safe either if you keep your distance. These modern cameras, equipped with high-tech lenses, are quite adept at capturing images from a wide angle so they are more than capable of fish eyeing your physique from forty or so yards away. 
 
9. The Party Animal  

This is another one to watch out for. This one more than likely will be hyped up on all sorts of hallucinogens and various muscle relaxers and hungry for a good time. This group will normally be covered head to toe in tribal tattoos and many of them often dress up as some sort of Keltic warrior complete with war paint and nappy hair. This sort of person in a normal setting wouldn’t be someone to worry about as running is always a good escape plan, but the ones who show up to these sort of events also happen to be in incredibly good shape. No, we must find a way to trick them somehow.  

You’re best option is to simply create some sort of distraction for him/her. Pro tip: if one of these raggedy animals happens to be giving you trouble, just point behind him and shout “Omg is that Andrew W.K?” and proceed to watch him sprint off into the nothingness.  
 
10. The Motivator 

The last person you’ll likely encounter is The Motivator. This is the guy or gal who is pumped and ready to play Good Samaritan for all his peers. They arrive on the scene shaking hands with as many people as they possibly can and right away begin to hand out freebies in the form of advice. “Are you well hydrated? Have you done one of these before? Me? Oh, I’ve done tons!” And they aren’t kidding either. 

These are the ones who blow past every obstacle and then simply hang around, lending a helping hand to everyone behind them. Because their bodies and souls are overflowing with energy, they feel the need to channel that energy into everyone else because to them, it’s just the right thing to do. Unfortunately, they’re also incredibly annoying. It’s bad enough to have your own teammates shouting at you as you climb some terrible wall, but to have a stranger’s words crawl all over your skin is a million times worse. In addition to their verbal assault, these fine people who wait at every obstacle to come to your aide will more than likely do so by laying their filthy hands on some part of your body—so proceed with caution and remember: Nothing in life is free.