May 2, 2015, it’s finally happening. It’s been what 5? 6 years? It’s the fight everyone has been waiting for, and now it’s almost unbelievable that it’s finally happening. So, what is going to happen?
Most boxing analysts say Mayweather is going to come out on top and it’s hard to disagree. Mayweather has been untouchable, well, mostly untouchable. The problem is that in order for Pacquiao to win, he is going to have to fight a perfect fight, whereas Mayweather simply has to show up and be Mayweather. So, let’s get into it.
First, we have to talk about Pacquiao’s left hand. The question is, how effective will Pacquiao’s signature lunging left hand be against Mayweather's tough defense? Unless Pacquiao just so happens to be tremendously faster than Mayweather come fight night (very doubtful), Pacquiao’s lunging left hand will probably be a non-factor.
The 38-year-old Mayweather has shown no sign of slowing down and has demonstrated, most recently against Maidana, that he can still effortlessly float away from an attacking opponent. This is a problem for Pacquiao because his vicious jab-straight combination can be seen from a mile away, especially for a seasoned fighter like Floyd Mayweather Jr.
Let’s look at some clips:
Double jab into straight for days...
Jab straight...
Pacquiao’s left hand has been most effective against opponents who have not been very mobile. Marquez, while a great counter puncher, can only retreat backward in a straight line. The once agile and quick footed De La Hoya showed up on fight night with what looked like weights attached to his ankles. Mosley too seemed to have let father time get the better of him. The point is, if you’re hoping for a big knockout shot to come from the lunging left, I believe you will be sorely disappointed. Let’s look at an example of Mayweather fighting a southpaw.
Float like a butterfly...
Notice as soon as Judah fires the double jab, Mayweather is gone. The only way I see Manny's lunging left hand becoming effective, is if Mayweather engages with Pacquiao full on near the ropes, which may happen, but considering how well Mayweather adjusted to Maidana’s onslaught in their second encounter, it’s doubtful he would allow himself to be put into that position. The only other way he might get caught with Pacquiao’s lunging left, is if he starts being the aggressor in the center of the right, which he likes to do when he feels he has the advantage. If Mayweather engages in this sort of fighting, a couple things would have to be established to justify the risk: Mayweather believes his speed is too much for Pacquiao; Pacquiao lacks the power to hurt Mayweather; Mayweather is just too big for Pacquiao.
“Pacquiao has to fight a perfect fight. ”
This isn’t to say Pacquiao won’t be able to land a left on Mayweather because he certainly will. Over the years, Pacquiao has begun to rely more so on his lead left than his signature jab-straight combinations. Let's look at what he was able to accomplish against De La Hoya.
And Mayweather has shown us time and time again that he is vulnerable to the left hand when it's not advertised.
Tap...
De La Hoya with some quick shots...
Cotto landing a series of straights...
But the punches Pacquiao will land with the left will only be good for the judges, not for scoring any sort of knockdown. This isn't to say Pacquiao's lead left is incapable of scoring a knockdown because it certainly is. Let’s look at one more clip to that illustrates Pacquiao’s lead left.
In addition to showing that he is susceptible to the left hand, Mayweather has shown that he is also susceptible to looping right hooks and counter rights. Some clips:
So close...
And, yes, just in case you were wondering, that was a knockdown by Zab Judah. The right landed by Mosley might have also resulted in a knockdown if Mayweather hadn’t held onto Mosley for dear life.
So this is where Pacquiao’s right gets interesting. Let’s look at two clips below.
And one more for good measure...
It doesn’t look like much, but these right hands managed to both knock Cotto down and severely turn the momentum against Marquez. Pacquiao’s ability to land short and quick punches on the inside are going to be crucial in winning against Mayweather. These short quick shots are especially dangerous because of Pacquiao’s speed and the angle from which they come, and Mayweather, when pressured, seems to have trouble dealing with shots coming from unusual angles. The first fight between Mayweather and Maidana is a prime of example of Mayweather struggling with punches coming from odd angles. Let’s look at the clip below.
Dat pressure...
Now, we have to remember that in Mayweather v Maidana II, Mayweather successfully managed to neutralize and dominate Maidana for the entire length of the fight. Still, Maidana showed that a world class fighter like Mayweather has trouble with aggression that comes from odd angles, such as Maidana’s hammer right hooks.
So it goes, that Pacquiao’s short right hands and left-hand leads will be his most effective punches against Mayweather. Will they be enough to win Pacquiao a decision? Definitely not. There are two other elements Pacquiao will need to bring to the fight in order to win against Mayweather: his knockout power and his tremendous footwork.
“Pacquiao needs to land quick right hooks.”
Pacquiao’s power has always been an interesting point of discussion. While many fighters in lower weight divisions have demonstrated great speed, it’s not often that one possesses both speed and power. Pacquiao’s ability to hurt people is arguably his greatest strength. It’s no mystery, that one you are getting hit and hit hard, you are going to hesitate to let your fists go. This works perfectly with Pacquiao’s style of fighting as his power causes many fighters to retreat, allowing Pacquiao to continue to land punches in bunches.
But does he still have that power? I think it’s safe to say Pacquiao still has the power to hurt fighters, but I think a better question is whether or not he will commit to his punches in the manner he used to. As discussed previously, Manny’s most devastating punch is his straight left hand, but I doubt we’ll see Manny commit to that punch often. Granted, he will throw it, but Mayweather would have successfully moved out of range by the time the punch meets its target. Come fight night, look to see Pacquiao use his jab-straight combo to close the distance more so than to inflict damage.
“Manny will have to commit to his punches.”
So, Pacquiao will have to hurt Mayweather with his other punches—notice I said hurt. It’s one thing to touch another fighter, but it's quite another to actually make him feel your fists. This is crucial to Manny’s success because if he can't hurt Mayweather, he won't get Mayweather to commit to any sort of exchange and Mayweather will continue to outbox Manny from the outside.
Manny’s short right hooks, his lead left, his often lazy jab—all have to land with authority. When Mayweather gets’s hurt (Judah, Mosley) he has shown a willingness to engage, to reassert himself as the more dominate fighter. This is a dangerous move against a fighter like Pacquiao, which brings us to another issue, Manny’s footwork. If Mayweather begins to hesitate with his hands, Manny should be able to take advantage just as long as he’s not reckless.
Truth be told, if Pacquiao wins, he is going to do so not by his strength or speed, but by his footwork. This is where, to me, Mayweather-Pacquiao, is so interesting. I don’t believe Mayweather has fought a fighter with as much lateral movement as Pacquiao, and it’s Pacquiao’s ability to move that makes this fight dangerous for Mayweather.
Mayweather has fought fast fighters; Mayweather has fought aggressive fighters; Mayweather has fought fighters that can move in and out of exchanges (albeit in straight lines); but he has never fought a fighter who is athletic as he is when it comes to footwork. Let’s look at a few clips.
What I find most impressive about this exchange and knockdown, is Manny’s ability to turn Hatton, firing what almost appears to be a blind jab, and then proceeds to rock him with the straight left.
Here, Pacquiao out works Cotto, turns him laterally and is able to open him up with great style.
So it goes, if Pacquiao brings his A+ game, in regards to his footwork, Mayweather-Pacquiao is going to be an exciting fight top to bottom and, more importantly to Pacquiao fans, a fight Manny just might have a chance of winning.
Pacquiao’s ability to move in and out of exchanges and move laterally will open the fight up. If Pacquiao can stay energetic and never lose his feet (or get knocked out), he should be able to employ his varied and impressive arsenal of punches.
There's something else that is interesting about Manny's footwork that I haven't seen discussed anywhere else. Manny fights most of his battles in the center of the ring, an area where Mayweather has completely dominated in every single one of his fights. It's not often that you will see Pacquiao attempt to use his physical strength to bully his opponent onto the ropes and go to work.
Manny likes to stay on the balls of his feet, constantly darting in and out of the range of his opponent, and it will be interesting to see how Mayweather reacts to this style of boxing. The question is: how will Manny use his footwork against Mayweather? Will Manny commit to a more physical bout as others have done before him? Will he try to muscle Mayweather onto the ropes and go to work? I certainly hope not.
Mayweather has shown, excluding his first fight with Maidana, that he is untouchable on the ropes. He has lured other aggressive fighters into this position only to punish them for over committing.
This is something Manny has to be very aware of, especially in lieu of his devasting loss to Marquez in their fourth encounter. Manny can't be lured to fight Mayweather on the ropes unless he has hurt him in some way and even then, he still must proceed with caution. Let's look at some clips of Mayweather fighting on the ropes.
Case in point...don't fight Mayweater on the ropes...
“If Manny can keep his feet, it will be an exciting fight.”
So it goes, that Pacquiao will need everything we just discussed to win. He will need his lunging left, his left-hand lead, and his inside right hook to land with authority. He will need to work his feet for 12 rounds without tiring and Pacquiao will need to average about a hundred or more punches a round. Furthermore, Pacquiao will have to neutralize Mayweather's jab with sound defense and avoid Mayweater's counter right. Let's look at this counter right.
Manny cannot get caught with this counter...
That’s a tall order for a fighter, even for one as great as Pacquiao. This is especially the case since Paquiao's domain is also Mayweather's domain--the center of the ring. Even if his skills are on full display on May 2nd, there are other things to consider.
First, the size difference. I can’t help but think about Mayweather-Marquez. I tell you I felt like I was watching a little kid pick a fight with an adult. The size difference was obvious and everyone ringside recognized it right away. Mayweather didn’t make weight at 144 lbs, coming in at 146, and on the night of the fight, Mayweather’s weight was not revealed. The weight difference was so substantial that Marquez, already an underdog, had zero chance of hurting Mayweather or imposing his will.
“Pacquiao has a tall order ahead of him.”
The fight between Manny and Floyd will be at the welterweight limit of 147 lbs. Manny’s last fight with Algieri was at a catchweight of 144 lbs and he looked great. Indeed, it is very likely that Mayweather will have a significant weight advantage of Pacquiao come May 2nd, and the difference alone might be enough to squash any hope of Pacquiao winning.
Weight isn’t the only issue. Mayweather is an inch and a half taller than Pacquiao and has a significant reach advantage of 5 inches. What does this all mean? Well, for one, Pacquiao has yet to engage in a fight with someone who is both mobile, and fights like a tall fighter.
Let’s look at the big fights Pacquiao has won.
De La Hoya: Hunched over, no footwork
Cotto: Bigger, but fought hunched over
Marquez: Solid defense, not very mobile
Mosley: Fought tall, but zero footwork.
What this amounts to is the fact that Pacquiao, who will already have a hard time getting to Mayweather, is at a considerable disadvantage based on Mayweather's stature.
So, can Manny Pacquiao win?
Yes, Pacquiao can win. Will he win? Probably not.
My prediction? Mayweather by split decision, and that’s being hopeful. I have serious doubts that Pacquiao, even if he shows up in perfect form, will be able to out class Mayweather. There’s just too much going against him.
When I think about this mega fight, I think about Marquez and what he was able to accomplish against Pacquiao. Marquez is a brilliant counter puncher and an extremely intelligent fighter, and Pacquiao has struggled to put a definitive stamp on his victories over him. Mayweather is better than Marquez in almost every way imaginable. He’s faster, smarter, and a better counter puncher. He’s also bigger.
Pacquiao will keep the fight interesting for 3-4 rounds, but Mayweather will take control of the fight, slow things down, and hell, he just might step forward and knock Pacquiao out with a strong left hook.